Storm of October 1–2, 2026: Victoria and Matagorda Bay
Peak water levels at 34 USGS gauges · 2 National Weather Service flood alerts · Victoria gauges now
The National Weather Service issued 2 flood alerts naming one or more of Calhoun, DeWitt, Goliad, Jackson, Lavaca, Matagorda, Victoria and Wharton counties between Oct 1, 2026 at 6:55 PM CDT and Oct 2, 2026 at 7:00 PM CDT. None of the 23 gauges with NWS flood stages reached one. The largest rise was 14.6 ft at Placedo Creek near Placedo.
National Weather Service alerts
| Alert | Issued | Until |
|---|---|---|
| Flood Watch | Oct 1, 2026 at 6:55 PM CDT | Oct 2, 2026 at 7:00 PM CDT |
| Flood Watch | Oct 2, 2026 at 8:36 AM CDT | Oct 2, 2026 at 7:00 PM CDT |
Alerts as issued by the National Weather Service, each naming at least one of the region's counties. They describe an area, not any one gauge.
USGS gauges: flood stages and records
None of 29 USGS gauges reached an NWS flood stage in this storm. 2 reached the NWS action stage: Garcitas Creek near Inez, W Mustang Creek near Ganado. For each gauge below, the storm peak is set against the NWS flood stages and against the highest annual peak in its comparable USGS record.
| USGS gauge | Storm peak | Against NWS flood stages | Against its USGS record | Rank in its record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Placedo Creek near Placedo | 18.51 ft | — | 13.1 ft below the 1999 record of 31.62 ft | highest since water year 2026; 45 of 56 years higher |
| Coleto Creek near Victoria | 5.25 ft | 19.8 ft below minor (25) | 36.8 ft below the 1967 record of 42.00 ft | highest since water year 2025; 58 of 67 years higher |
| Garcitas Creek near Inez | 10.48 ft | at or above action (10), by 0.5 ft | 22.9 ft below the 1995 record of 33.43 ft | highest since water year 2025; 51 of 56 years higher |
| W Mustang Creek near Ganado | 10.73 ft | at or above action (9), by 1.7 ft | 17.7 ft below the 1995 record of 28.39 ft | highest since water year 2026; 48 of 49 years higher |
| Guadalupe River at Victoria | 7.92 ft | 13.1 ft below minor (21) | 26.1 ft below the 1999 record of 34.04 ft | highest since water year 2026; 91 of 92 years higher |
| San Antonio River at Goliad | 10.08 ft | 14.9 ft below minor (25) | 43.6 ft below the 1967 record of 53.70 ft | highest since water year 2026; 93 of 94 years higher |
| Caney Creek at SH 35 near Van Vleck | 22.83 ft | — | 19.5 ft below the 2024 record of 42.30 ft | lower than every annual peak since 2021 (6 years) |
| Guadalupe River at SH 35 near Tivoli | 12.06 ft | — | 5.3 ft below the 2017 record of 17.35 ft | lower than every annual peak since 2014 (12 years) |
| Colorado River at Wharton | 10.07 ft | 28.9 ft below minor (39) | 40.4 ft below the 2017 record of 50.47 ft | lower than every annual peak since 1984 (43 years) |
| Tres Palacios River near Midfield | 8.51 ft | 15.5 ft below minor (24) | 23.9 ft below the 1984 record of 32.43 ft | lower than every annual peak since 1971 (56 years) |
| Sandy Creek near Ganado | 8.45 ft | 9.6 ft below minor (18) | 24.3 ft below the 1999 record of 32.72 ft | lower than every annual peak since 1978 (48 years) |
| Guadalupe River at Cuero | 7.95 ft | 16.1 ft below minor (24) | 42.4 ft below the 1999 record of 50.35 ft | lower than every annual peak since 1964 (63 years) |
| E Mustang Creek near Louise | 7.68 ft | 11.3 ft below minor (19) | 16.7 ft below the 2005 record of 24.35 ft | lower than every annual peak since 1997 (30 years) |
| Navidad River at Morales | 7.57 ft | 21.4 ft below minor (29) | 28.3 ft below the 2017 record of 35.83 ft | lower than every annual peak since 1997 (24 years) |
| Guadalupe River at Highway 183 near Hochheim | 6.83 ft | 16.2 ft below action (23) | 33.4 ft below the 2017 record of 40.20 ft | lower than every annual peak since 2017 (10 years) |
| Lavaca River near Edna | 6.77 ft | 14.2 ft below minor (21) | 28.7 ft below the 1995 record of 35.49 ft | lower than every annual peak since 1936 (89 years) |
| Fifteenmile Creek near Weser | 6.09 ft | — | 20.6 ft below the 1997 record of 26.68 ft | lower than every annual peak since 1985 (39 years) |
| Colorado River near Bay City | 5.45 ft | 38.5 ft below minor (44) | 50.6 ft below the 1914 record of 56.10 ft | lower than every annual peak since 1914 (81 years) |
| Navidad River at Strane Park near Edna | 5.36 ft | 18.6 ft below minor (24) | 25.9 ft below the 2017 record of 31.28 ft | lower than every annual peak since 1997 (30 years) |
| Navidad River near Hallettsville | 5.13 ft | 18.9 ft below minor (24) | 31.3 ft below the 2017 record of 36.38 ft | lower than every annual peak since 1962 (65 years) |
| Sandies Creek near Westhoff | 4.86 ft | 16.1 ft below minor (21) | 28.2 ft below the 1936 record of 33.10 ft | lower than every annual peak since 1931 (72 years) |
| Lavaca River at Hallettsville | 4.27 ft | 22.7 ft below minor (27) | 36.8 ft below the 1981 record of 41.10 ft | lower than every annual peak since 1940 (81 years) |
| Navidad River near Speaks | 3.06 ft | 20.9 ft below minor (24) | 29.7 ft below the 2017 record of 32.79 ft | lower than every annual peak since 1982 (30 years) |
| Colorado River near Wadsworth | 2.99 ft | — | 16.6 ft below the 2017 record of 19.60 ft | lower than every annual peak since 2017 (10 years) |
| Coleto Creek at Arnold Rd Crossing near Schroeder | 1.99 ft | 13.0 ft below minor (15) | 29.2 ft below the 1997 record of 31.17 ft | lower than every annual peak since 1979 (47 years) |
| Perdido Creek at FM 622 near Fannin | 1.72 ft | — | 19.9 ft below the 2005 record of 21.66 ft | lower than every annual peak since 1979 (48 years) |
| Juanita Creek at SH 71 near Midfield | 37.14 ft | 7.9 ft below minor (45) | — | — |
| Guadalupe River near Bloomington | 10.66 ft | 9.3 ft below minor (20) | — | — |
| Linnville Bayou at FM 521 near Cedar Lane | 2.90 ft | 19.1 ft below minor (22) | — | — |
Records are USGS annual peaks (each water year's highest gage height) from the years comparable with today's datum; they can differ from the crests the NWS lists. Gauges without NWS flood stages or at least five comparable years are on their own pages.
Every gauge
Peak is each gauge's highest gage height in the window; rise is from its last reading before the window opened. Peak times along one river reflect where and when rain fell as well as flow downstream, so their order is not a travel time.
| Gauge | County | Peak | Peak time | Rise | Against NWS flood stages |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W Mustang Creek near Ganado | Jackson County | 10.73 ft | Oct 3, 2026 at 5:00 AM CDT | 6.7 ft | at or above action stage |
| Garcitas Creek near Inez | Victoria County | 10.48 ft | Oct 4, 2026 at 11:00 AM CDT | 6.2 ft | at or above action stage |
| Juanita Creek at SH 71 near Midfield | Matagorda County | 37.14 ft | Oct 2, 2026 at 4:30 PM CDT | 4.3 ft | 7.9 ft below minor flood stage |
| Guadalupe River near Bloomington | Victoria County | 10.66 ft | Oct 4, 2026 at 7:00 PM CDT | 2.1 ft | 9.3 ft below minor flood stage |
| Sandy Creek near Ganado | Jackson County | 8.45 ft | Oct 4, 2026 at 7:30 AM CDT | 3.9 ft | 9.6 ft below minor flood stage |
| E Mustang Creek near Louise | Wharton County | 7.68 ft | Oct 3, 2026 at 12:00 AM CDT | 4.8 ft | 11.3 ft below minor flood stage |
| Coleto Creek at Arnold Rd Crossing near Schroeder | Goliad County | 1.99 ft | Oct 1, 2026 at 11:15 PM CDT | 0.1 ft | 13.0 ft below minor flood stage |
| Guadalupe River at Victoria | Victoria County | 7.92 ft | Oct 3, 2026 at 10:45 PM CDT | 3.1 ft | 13.1 ft below minor flood stage |
| Lavaca River near Edna | Jackson County | 6.77 ft | Oct 4, 2026 at 2:30 PM CDT | 2.6 ft | 14.2 ft below minor flood stage |
| San Antonio River at Goliad | Goliad County | 10.08 ft | Oct 4, 2026 at 7:00 PM CDT | 6.7 ft | 14.9 ft below minor flood stage |
| Tres Palacios River near Midfield | Matagorda County | 8.51 ft | Oct 2, 2026 at 11:30 AM CDT | 5.5 ft | 15.5 ft below minor flood stage |
| Guadalupe River at Cuero | DeWitt County | 7.95 ft | Oct 4, 2026 at 6:45 PM CDT | 0.8 ft | 16.1 ft below minor flood stage |
| Sandies Creek near Westhoff | DeWitt County | 4.86 ft | Oct 3, 2026 at 5:30 AM CDT | 2.9 ft | 16.1 ft below minor flood stage |
| Guadalupe River at Highway 183 near Hochheim | DeWitt County | 6.83 ft | Oct 4, 2026 at 4:45 AM CDT | 0.9 ft | 16.2 ft below action stage |
| Navidad River at Strane Park near Edna | Jackson County | 5.36 ft | Oct 4, 2026 at 5:00 PM CDT | 0.2 ft | 18.6 ft below minor flood stage |
| Navidad River near Hallettsville | Lavaca County | 5.13 ft | Oct 2, 2026 at 5:30 AM CDT | 0.8 ft | 18.9 ft below minor flood stage |
| Linnville Bayou at FM 521 near Cedar Lane | Matagorda County | 2.90 ft | Oct 4, 2026 at 7:00 AM CDT | 0.3 ft | 19.1 ft below minor flood stage |
| Coleto Creek near Victoria | Victoria County | 5.25 ft | Oct 4, 2026 at 1:45 AM CDT | 1.4 ft | 19.8 ft below minor flood stage |
| Navidad River near Speaks | Lavaca County | 3.06 ft | Oct 2, 2026 at 4:30 AM CDT | 0.9 ft | 20.9 ft below minor flood stage |
| Navidad River at Morales | Jackson County | 7.57 ft | Oct 4, 2026 at 12:00 AM CDT | 1.0 ft | 21.4 ft below minor flood stage |
| Lavaca River at Hallettsville | Lavaca County | 4.27 ft | Oct 1, 2026 at 6:30 PM CDT | 1.0 ft | 22.7 ft below minor flood stage |
| Colorado River at Wharton | Wharton County | 10.07 ft | Oct 2, 2026 at 10:30 AM CDT | 2.0 ft | 28.9 ft below minor flood stage |
| Colorado River near Bay City | Matagorda County | 5.45 ft | Oct 3, 2026 at 8:45 AM CDT | 1.6 ft | 38.5 ft below minor flood stage |
| West Bernard Creek at US 59 near Hungerford | Wharton County | 81.83 ft | Oct 4, 2026 at 12:30 AM CDT | 8.2 ft | — |
| Caney Creek at SH 35 near Van Vleck | Matagorda County | 22.83 ft | Oct 4, 2026 at 8:00 AM CDT | 0.3 ft | — |
| Colorado River near Wadsworth | Matagorda County | 2.99 ft | Oct 1, 2026 at 9:00 AM CDT | 0.3 ft | — |
| Clarks Creek at US 77 near Sweet Home | Lavaca County | 150.29 ft | Oct 2, 2026 at 5:00 PM CDT | 1.1 ft | — |
| Chicolette Creek at US 77 near Yoakum | Victoria County | 134.74 ft | Oct 1, 2026 at 9:15 PM CDT | 0.0 ft | — |
| W Sandy Creek at FM 2437 near Sheridan | Lavaca County | 193.60 ft | Oct 2, 2026 at 8:15 AM CDT | 0.5 ft | — |
| Placedo Creek near Placedo | Victoria County | 18.51 ft | Oct 2, 2026 at 4:00 AM CDT | 14.6 ft | — |
| Fifteenmile Creek near Weser | DeWitt County | 6.09 ft | Oct 1, 2026 at 7:00 AM CDT | 0.0 ft | — |
| Perdido Creek at FM 622 near Fannin | Goliad County | 1.72 ft | Oct 1, 2026 at 8:30 PM CDT | 0.9 ft | — |
| North end of GBRA Calhoun Canal near Long Mott | Calhoun County | 14.16 ft | Oct 3, 2026 at 10:15 PM CDT | 1.2 ft | — |
| Guadalupe River at SH 35 near Tivoli | Calhoun County | 12.06 ft | Oct 2, 2026 at 6:30 AM CDT | 0.2 ft | — |
How this event is defined
By the National Weather Service, not by this site. Every flood alert naming any of Calhoun, DeWitt, Goliad, Jackson, Lavaca, Matagorda, Victoria and Wharton counties counts (coastal flood alerts excluded); alerts that start within 24 hours of the previous one ending are one event. Each gauge's peak is its highest reading from 12 hours before the first alert to 48 hours after the last one ended: Oct 1, 2026 at 6:55 AM CDT to Oct 4, 2026 at 7:00 PM CDT. Large rivers crest a day or more after the rain, which is why the window runs past the alerts.
2026-10-01.csv (CSV): the table above, one row per gauge, with times in UTC and Central.